Arlequin

On prediction

Let's talk about prediction. The internet is overflowing with prognosticators who get paid to have opinions on anything and everything. "Unemployment is going up .25 percent!" "IBM will hit 190 tomorrow!" "The Euro is going down!" They don't care if they are wrong because people will soon forget about their latest prediction and move on. This is not that kind of blog. I want to write my thoughts without the strictures of prediction. If I make a prediction, I want it to be right. I admire Yves Smith, who NEVER makes a prediction. I don't have the self control to never make predictions, but I can limit the number of predictions I make. Most of all, I want people to understand that I am making simple and short term projections of long running trends. If I draw a line on a chart it is a projection of a trend not a prediction. So with that said, I want to introduce a chart I left out of my post on the 28th of Dec. 2013.

I do not believe in this lime green line. I think the Fed will do something before the bond markets get out of control. I don't know what that something would be. I might speculate about a new currency or a revaluation or something, but I cannot tell how serious a bond market dislocation would be.